Next week is the big week

Events next week:

• The UN Climate Change Conference kicks off in Copenhagen (COP 15) and Leaders of the Commonwealth countries called Saturday for a legally binding international agreement on climate change and a global fund with billions of dollars to help poor countries meet its mandates. The 53-nation meeting was the largest gathering of international leaders before next month's global climate summit in Copenhagen.
  
• Barack Obama receives the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo


• ....and an important step for us: the JAHUS project will finally be completed

You may also want to see this video-clip on glaciers disappearing in China http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=16886820&ch=4226714&src=news

Progress:

As mentioned above, they have promised to finish the JAHUS project this week. Tuesday next week we have agreed to meet here and they will formally hand over the project to us - and give us instructions on how to operate the new ventilation system (and the heatpump).

Until then, I'm afraid there will be very little to report from our project. (Nobody showed up today either - so I guess they're planning a busy end to this week).
















The attached picture shows one page from the Users Guide that follows our new ventilation aggregate. In the middle of the picture there is something standing up like a factory chimney with a mysterious thing at the end (marked 5). This is the discharge of extract ("used") air. I have pointed out that the discharge of extract air from our house is creating too much noice - and reminded them of the fact that there should be a silencer at the end (it's not here now).

The picture also shows noice-traps on the pipes coming in to- and when the air is leaving the aggregate (for distribution in the house). These noice traps are also missing, but I hope they will fix this before hand-over next Tuesday.

The most critical point except for the noice level, is the ventilation system's ability to both effectively capture the energy in the exhaust air - and to distribute the heat from the heatpump. In my last blog post I mentioned that I believe they have to alter the solution to make this work (adding the heated air AFTER the heat-exchanger in the aggregate). We'll see one week from now....

A day in between

Event 1: China sets emissions target
China has announced a target to cut the greenhouse intensity of its economy by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020, its contribution to the Copenhagen climate treaty negotiations. The target means a lowering of carbon emissions per unit of GDP only – not making absolute cuts to emissions nor cutting emissions by a set amount below business-as-usual levels. The government also announced that Premier Wen Jiabao will attend the conference in person next month.

http://www.carbonpositive.net/viewarticle.aspx?articleID=1750

Comment> While China and other developing countries have never been expected to set targets for absolute emission cuts, analysis of China’s carbon footprint suggests that the target is not particularly ambitious. See more comments on the CO2 emissions from China vs USA below (under Event 2).

Event 2: Climate change - Copenhagen in graphics
As the UN summit in Copenhagen approaches, BBC looks at the past, present and possible futures of climate change. This article provides a good summary of the situation we are in - and it contains interesting graphs.


The graph I have included here shows where we need to be in 2030 in terms of gigatonnes of CO2 emissions - to stay below 2C global warming. It shows that even with the current best case scenario for the Copenhagen summit - we'll miss the target by approximately 6 Gt.

One of the other graphs from BBC (not included here) illustrates that in the first years of the new century, China's emissions overtook those of the US.

We should keep in mind, however, that China and India produce a much smaller amount per capita than counterparts in regions such as North America or Western Europe. Countries that industrialised early and grew rich early because of that industrialisation, such as the UK, Germany and the US, have a higher "historical footprint". In some peoples' eyes, this gives them a higher responsibility for curbing the problem (ref my previous comments on "the CO2 Space").


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8359629.stm


Progress report:
Nobody showed up to finish the work yesterday - and it doesn't look like they will do any work here today either. I hope and believe that many new families will convert their houses to a JAHUS-standard in the next few years, but hopefully they get an easier ride than what we have had. The good news, however, is that I now feel quite confident that (with a few small adjustments) - our JAHUS will be as comfortable and energy efficient as we had hoped for.


To verify that the heat exchange inside the ventilation aggregate works as expected, I closed the valve that regulates the amount of heated air from the heatpump that is currently being mixed with the fresh air BEFORE the aggregate. This means that it now gets cold fresh air at 5C as input and it exchanges energy with the outgoing exhaust air which holds ca 20C.


The test shows that the aggregate works nicely (and as expected) when there is no heated air mixed in with the cold outside air. The air that flows out of the aggregate and into the house goes from 5C to 17C and the air leaving the house comes in at 20C and leaves the house at 10C.

I have created a flow chart that illustrates how the system would look like if they move the point of entry for the heated air - to after the aggregate. I still haven't received an answer from the ventilation team regarding this suggestion.

Higher energy prices? Yes please

Event 1: A global energy market?

Many contributions to the local debate here in Norway has argued that we should avoid adding to the transmission capacity of electricity between Norway and the rest of Europe. There are talks about this initiative being driven by profit-hunger from the already rich energy companies (and bonus/salary payments to management in these companies). This is quite possibly one of the driving forces, but I believe there are far more important considerations.


Our time's biggest challenge is global warming, and in the background there is a looming energy crisis. How much energy saving- (and hence CO2 reduction-) projects will be initiated if electricity prices in Norway are totally out of sync with the rest of Europe? Look to the USA and what low gasoline prices have done to the the use- and size of of cars, and how high energy prices have changed the daily routines to the better in Europe (if you don't walk up the stairs fast enough, the lights will be switched off).


Does Norway want to be the scapegoat in environmental issues, and countries such as France is considered one of the leaders in CO2 reductions? France has had energy-conscious people for years, and now they also have extra incentives for implementing energy-saving measures in the house (interestfree loans up to 30,000 Euros over 10 years) which, together with high electricity prices make it financially attractive for private households to order "jahus" projects (extra insulation, heatpumps etc). The government in France achieves not only increased economic activity, but is also reducing the unemployment problem and the ability to fulfill their part of the CO2-cutting task that we all have to deal with the (all people to the oars - for we are all in the same boat).


There are also more technical arguments why we need to add more cables between Norway and Europe. This fall, we had two examples of large quantities of clean energy being lost because we lacked the capacity for the exchange of energy between Denmark and Norway.

• In Denmark there was a storm and since it was weekend, it was not enough demand for power from the grid - so they had to simply disconnect the wind turbines (the power grid has no function to store energy).


• That same week, there was a headline story on teh TV2 news that the BKK had to let the water in their reservoirs flow down the mountainside - outside the turbines because the electricity generated was more than the demand in the powergrid.

When there is no wind in Europe, they should be able to use hydropower from Norway (which we can save and "let go" when it suits us). Similarly, they should be able to export energy to us when there is plenty of wind - we can use this energy to pump water into reservoirs in the mountains. Norway then stores excess energy until some time in the future when there is no wind in Denmark (or clouds in Spain - so that solar plants do not produce electricity).


It can be repeated until it becomes tedious, we are all in the same boat and 1 ton of CO2 not emitted from a coal fired power plant in Europe (because they have access to clean energy from Norway) is equally important to our planet as 1 tonne of reduced CO2 emissions from rush hour traffic in Oslo, if we all use or bikes to work. Wouldn't everyone in Norway rather have Europe buy electricity from Norway (the majority goes straight to the Treasury = us) than to have BKK sending water outside the turbines while at the same time there are power plants in Europe fueled by coal (sending one kilogram of CO2 into the atmosphere for every 1KWh produced)?

I therefore strongly believe that we must (as soon as possible):

1. Get the current electricity prices of our synchronized with the rest of Europe


2. Increase the capacity of power transmissions between Europe and Norway


3. The government should, through the Norwegian State Housing Bank, channel some of the extra revenue (higher electricity prices/increased exports) to measures that further incentivates private households to start "jahus" projects (interest-free loans as in France and VAT / tax exemption as in Germany and the USA).

Progress:

Yesterday, I called the technical director at a norwegian manufacturer of ventilation systems (Flexit). We discussed the solution being implemented here and he fully supported my claim - that the heated air from the heatpump should be mixed with the fresh outside air AFTER the heat-exchanger.

There has been no progress to report all week, and the team has refused to comment on the issue of "point of entry" for the heated air. Next Tuesday is the hand-over day and as far as I can see there is quite a lot of work remaining (pump, noice, point-of-entry etc.)....

Silence is golden

Event 1:

President Obama to Attend Copenhagen Climate Talks:
http://whitehouse.blogs.foxnews.com/2009/11/25/president-obamas-copenhagen-pitch/

Comment> The fact that he is coming is good, but he arrives a week before the other heads of state - and most people had expected much more comittment than CO2 cuts in the range of 17% below 2005 (which equals no more than the 3-4% from the 1990 level). This also well below what IPCC says is required to avoid dramatic climate changes.

Event 2:
The weather here in Norway is really bad these days and the newspapers today included such headlines as "It's raining - but the price of electricity drops". In the same newspapers, the discussions continue on whether or not we should increase the capacity of power cables between Norway and the rest of Europe.

Comment> How can the government expect people to invest in energy saving measures at home (like JAHUS) if the price of electricity keeps falling - rather than to synch with the rest of Europe? If the price came up to its proper level - not only would more people save more energy at home, but the mostly state-owned power companies would make more money that the government could use for incentives that will drive more energy saving projects.

Progress:
The title "silence is golden" was chosen since much of the focus now is on reducing the noice from the ventilation system. When we came home from work today, the system was running on medium effect (normal) - so it seems as though they agree that we need "normal" effect to get the required supply of fresh air.

During the day they have added a noice-trap to reduce the noice in our guestroom (see the attached picture of the noice trap).

Directly in front of the noice trap is something that looks like a valve.

If it is, I think it is a good idea - because I was afraid that the room next to the ventilation room gets much more than it's fair share of the fresh "supply air" (both the noice level and holding your hand up to the outlet gave an impression of much more airflow than in the livingroom upstairs). I guess we'll have to wait for the handover to find out what their plan is...

According to the users guide from the manufacturer of the aggregate there should be noice traps all the piping going in and out of the aggregate - and on the outlet (where the exhaust air is blown out of the house). All these noicetraps are still missing.

I also think they finished the extra loop today. It will provide cool air from the basement to the bedrooms upstairs on hot summer nights (to keep the bedrooms cooler than the rest of the house).

I have created a flowchart that illustrates the flow of air through our ventilation system - and I attached it below for those who are interested. If you have comments or suggestions, please don't hesitate to use the comment input field (at the bottom of this blog).

Behind the scenes of climate negotiations

FORMAT CHANGE:
Now that the pressure is building up for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15 in 12 days), there are many events that I want to share with you, and discuss. At the same time, our JAHUS project goes into a phase with smaller changes/steps and hence little to report from day to day. I will therefore start the blog-entries with comments to recent events, and I will end the blog posts with a report from our own JAHUS project.

EVENT 1: MIXING WATER TO GET ELECTRICITY
The Norwegian company Statkraft opened the world’s first osmotic power prototype today.“This new technology generates electricity simply by mixing water. New solutions to meet the climate challenges might be closer than we expect, which makes me confident that the future looks bright,” says Statkraft CEO and President, Baard Mikkelsen.


The global potential of osmotic power is estimated to be 1,600-1,700 TWh per annum, equivalent to 50 percent of the EU’s total power production. Osmotic power plants can, in principle, be located wherever fresh water runs into the sea; they produce no noise or polluting emissions and they can be integrated into existing industrial zones, for example, in the basements of industrial buildings.


http://www.statkraft.com/presscentre/press-releases/the-worlds-first-osmotic-power-prototype-opens-today.aspx

EVENT 2: BEHIND THE SCENES OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS
What will happen in Copenhagen? Can the world be saved by this summit? This was the agenda when the think tank Civita hosted a breakfast meeting this morning.

Keynote speaker was Norway's chief negotiator Hanne Bjurstrøm (and she will be Minister of Labor after the Copenhagen summit). Terje Osmundsen, director of strategies and business development in the norwegian solar energy company Scatec Solar, then commented on the keynote.

I found the session very interesting and want to share some of the highlights with you.

The target for climate negotiations
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) is the leading body for the assessment of climate change, established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. In 2007 they received the Nobel Peace Prize (sharing it with Al Gore).

IPCC says that industrialized countries must reduce CO2 emissions by 25-40% by 2020 (compared to 1990) if we should have a hope of keeping the global warming from increasing beyond 2C. According to IPCC this is a level at which we can avoid the most dramatic scenarios of global warming - and is now accepted by most countries as the target for all climate talks.

IPCC also say that CO2 must be cut by 50% by 2050, but more than 40 years ahead - there is no real discussion or negotiations about this target. All emphasis is on getting sufficient cuts by 2020.

Terje Osmundsen said that it is no longer a game of numbers, but a more fundamental issue that requires the mobilization of all people (like the rest of Europe must have felt when they were fighting "the Third Reich" from 1940-45). It is either win this war or face certain catastrophy.

One other way to look at it is: you can not afford to wait and see, and then try to compensate for what you see (control engineering). With the threat of dramatic climate changes it is too late "to turn the ship" in 2020 when the first actual dramatic changes can be observed - we must act now. It is a fact that cutting 1% CO2 in 2010 is worth a lot more than the same amount in 2030.

Current assessment
The average committment from industrialized countries is currently at approximately 17% now - so according to IPCC these committments must be raised to at least 25% for the world to stay below 2C global warming.

Not only should industrialized countries (who stands for most of the CO2 emissions) stand for 80% of the CO2 cuts - but we will not reach our target unless even the developing countries cut 20% (compared to 1990).

How to achieve these cuts
Developing counties: There will be transfer of funds from industrialized countries to developing countries upfront to help them build systems and reporting on CO2 emissions. Later there will be payments for achieved tasks (they will commit to specific lists of tasks and not a specific % reduction in CO2 emissions). If we get a working market for CO2 quotas, the markets will also take care of a transfer of funds from industrialized countries to the developing countries.

Industrialized countries: the realistic target for COP15 is a binding political agreement and industrial countries must quickly come up with plans (and milestones) to implement the cuts they have comitted to. The participants in todays session criticized the Norwegian government for being good at setting high targets - but not so good at producing plans or taking actions (like introducing incentives for improving the energy efficiency of the many old homes - ref the JAHUS project).

Challenges:
There are of course many challenges they face when they meet in Copenhagen. I will list some of them here.

One question from the audience: "only 80% cuts in the industrialized countries? Shouldn't it have been 120%?" The answer....

When China talks about "the CO2 space" they mean that there is a limited CO2 space in the world and the industrialized countries have used (or taken up) a majority of this space. Now when China, India and other developing countries are being industrialized too - their growth will be curbed because the CO2 space is almost "sold out". Most countries agree that this is a correct description of the situation. Industrialized countries will be responsible for 80% of the cuts (from higher levels), but as mentioned above even the developing countries need to cut CO2 by ca 20%. It may seem unfair to most of us, and India can safely claim that they will never be responsible for as much CO2 emissions as the best performing industrialized country - but nevertheless it is an unfortunate fact that we must all pull together to reach the 2C target.

Russia was given CO2 emission quotas in Kyoto, that were higher than they actually need now - because of more problematic business development than expected during the Kyoto negotiations. They have therefore accumulated considerable amounts of CO2 quotas that they of course will insist on pulling forward into the new agreement. Even if Russia commits to 25% cuts it will not be enough because they can actually increase CO2 emissions and still be compliant (because of the unused CO2 quotas pulled forward). EU will similarly get "a free ride" from the membership countries who also have accumulated CO2 quotas.

We live in a global world, and if we produce goods in our own country - the CO2 emissions increase here. If we, however, move the production to another country - we look like a compliant country and the CO2 effect of the goods we import adds to the CO2 emission reports in the country where the products were produced. USA has suggested a special CO2 import tax - but India is clearly against such a move. Understandably so - because this would be like introducing new trade barriers and it would be more expensive for consumers in USA to buy products from China or India (World Trade Organization is fighting all such trade barriers).

PROGRESS IN OUR JAHUS PROJECT:
As mentioned yesterday, we have doubts about some of the solutions that have been implemented by the ventilation team. These issues were described in an email to the company yesterday, and today we received a brief response.

They will answer all the questions/comments when they hand over the project to us (when they have finished everything and feel they can be proud of the result).

At least they agreed to my suggested location for pulling the cool air into the separate ventilation loop that will provide the 4 bedrooms with colder air than the other rooms in the house). Not sure what they plan for the extra supply of air to this room (as they will be pulling air out of a quite small room). It does not seem like they liked the idea of using some of the air from above the heatpump on the other side of the wall (colder than the outside air in the summer months). The other question about the air being pulled into the aggregate is too warm was not answered - so I guess we'll have to wait for the handover to see what they actually did about that problem.

I read the instruction manual for the aggregate today and found out that it must be running on the medium setting (what they call "NORMAL") to provide the house with enough fresh air (500 cubic meters per hour). This setting means much more noice - and when I mentioned this, the ventilation team said that it should be sufficient air supply if we use the lowest setting (the manufacturer call this setting "Going Away"). My response to the team was that I expect the solution to deliver 500 cubic meters per hour as it is stated in the contract - and they can do (almost) whatever they like to achieve this. If this means running the aggregate at medium/normal effect, then they will have to add more silencers on the ducts/piping and in the cabinet they use for the transport of air to- and from- the rooms on the first floor (via the attic).

We are waiting in cautious optimism for the actual handover day.

Even though they had promised to come here today - it seemed to me that nothing had been done when I arrived early from work at 2pm (planned to work from home the rest of the day and answer any questions they may have). One hour later one guy showed up with some supplies, but because he had been injured by a knife in a workrelated accident earlier today (two fingers had been stitched) - he was in too much pain to do any work today. He left after 15 minutes. I later found out that he had actually started the project of adding an extra loop to the bedroom (adding another pipe from the attic through the cabinet to the basement).

Waiting, waiting....

Progress:
The electrician showed up today and I think he has finished all that was needed by the ventilation team. Now the rest is up to the ventilation team, but they did not come today - and have not said anything about the plan to finish their project.

At the moment the temperature of the air that blows out of the building is the same as the temperature that is distributed to the rooms in our house (only 16C). There is definitely a need for calibration of the system - and if I'm not mistaken the ventilation team also has to make some changes to make it work as intended. I have provided them with a few suggestions that I think will improve the distribution of heated air - and at the same time utilizing the aggregate to "pull" energy out of the used air before it leaves the house.

One example: To get the most out of the exchange of energy between cold incoming air and warm "used" air I would think that the incomming air must be cold - and not mixed with heated air from the heatpump. Shouldn't the heated air be mixed with the fresh air after the aggregate? Looking forward to hear the response from the ventilation team.

Events:
As I'm writing this blog post, there is a program on the TV and the agenda is "global warming - true or false".

In the introduction they started with a look back at the 1970s - when the scientists predicted that we were entering a new ice age. We now know that their assumptions were wrong, and we have later observed that the average temperature in the world is rising.

Charles David Keeling published the first report on CO2 in the atmosphere as early as 1958. He continued to measure CO2 and after a few years the trend was clear - the CO2 content increases year over year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve). CO2 captures the heat on its way out from our planet - and increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere creates the greenhouse effect (global warming).

The Jason report on climate changes came in 1979 "Title Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07": The warming of climate will not necessarily lead to improved living conditions everywhere. Changes in sea level, in agricultural productivity, and in water availability can be anticipated, but the dimensions of their economic, political, or social consequences can not."

The Reagan administration in USA ordered another scientific report and their conclusion was different - there is no need to do anything. Later during the 80s and 90s the politicians could no longer close their eyes for the scientific evidence. Now, most world leaders have said that they will come to Copenhagen in December for the UN lead conference on climate chages.

Don't worry, I will not report on all the historic events they talked about in the program. It was interesting to see more of the scientific work behind the common view of the connection between CO2 emissions and potentially dramatic climate changes. Yes, the scientists have been wrong before (ice age/1970), but can we afford to not listen to the almost unison warning from the science community and world leaders?

(As discussed in an earlier blog post, there is also a different reason for reducing the use of fossile fuels - the reports of a looming energy crisis).

What will happen in Copenhagen? Can the world be saved by this summit?
The think tank Civita has invited to a breakfast meeting tomorrow (Nov 24th.) Keynote speaker is Norway's chief negotiator Hanne Bjurstrøm (and Minister of Labor after the Copenhagen summit). Terje Osmundsen, director of strategies and business development in the norwegian solar energy company Scatec Solar, will then comment on the keynote. I am looking forward to hear what these people have to say - now that we are only a few weeks from the Copenhagen summit.

First day in our "new home"

Status:
For the first time in years we slept without opening the door (from our bedroom) to the small veranda outside. We used to open the door to get the desired supply of fresh air through the night, but hoped that the ventilation system would take care of this now that we live in a "JAHUS"...and the jury says:

Nice. We had enough fresh air, and because the door had been closed there was:

• no noice from people passing the house on their way home from a party/nachspiel. The new door not only keeps the energy inside the house, but it is very effective in shielding us from noice from outside the house
• higher room temperature (but not too high) compared to the "open door scenario"

Now that the ventilation system was running, we were ready for the inauguration of the refurbished bathroom - including the new shower (picture attached below).

This morning I got up early for a nice 1hour bicycle ride under clear blue skies (with the nice colours you see when the sun is rising). When I came back I used the shower upstairs for the first time - and it was as nice as I had hoped for. As I came out of the shower, my daughters called and said the breakfast was ready - what a nice day to start a Saturday :-)
















The point of sharing this with you? There was no noice from the ventilation system, but the "fog" in the bathroom did not clear as fast as I had hoped for. We'll have to ask the specialists for advise on how to increase the effect on the ventilation from this room (from this room the system only pulls air out - the air is "refilled" from nearby rooms, under the door etc.)

One pleasant surprise this morning was that the heatpump had adjusted it self down to a very low noice-level. The excessive noice we experienced yesterday was probably the result of some start-up sequence.

I have now adjusted the different valves of the ventilation system to maximise the circulation of the heated air from the heatpump - and it seems to work fine. All rooms in the house is on approximately 21C and without the help of other heating than the heatpump.

I purchased a bunch of cheap thermometers and placed them in different locations throughout the house to monitor the effects of different settings in the ventilation system. Yes, the specialists will do this for us on Monday - but the readers who know me, know that I like to find out how these things work without reading the manual or getting help from specialists......

When I have had the "beginners crash-course" in our JAHUS solution, I will provide you with a more detailed description of the solution and how we achieve cooler temperature in the bedrooms etc. (using the valves and settings on the heatpump, the ventilation aggregate and the new fan).

For the readers who know us and have been to our house before, I have also included a picture from the new restroom (WC):

Events:
In a local newspaper today (Dagens Naeringsliv), a key article on page 2 was written by a senior journalist who is very sceptical to the actual environment value of migrating from fossil fuels to biodiesel/bioethanol. As mentioned in earlier blog-posts, there is a very heated debate in Norway these days about removing the taxes benefits for cars running on biodiesel. The journalist refers to recently published scientific report that questions the CO2 benefit:



Newly agreed EU legislation on biofuels and fuel quality are highly unlikely to reduce CO2 emissions from transport fuel used in Europe. T&E and other environmental organisations are proposing substantial changes, in particular to address the environmental impact of indirect land use change (ILUC) caused by increased biofuel production. Download the report Biofuels: Handle with care and summary in English, French and German

He says that not only are the benefits of biodiesel projects questionable and at best very ineffective, but keeping the lower taxlevel on these cars only encourages a migration from thirsty diesel SUVs to thirsty biodiesel SUVs.

Comments: As if I should have said it myself :-) Compare 180 USD per ton of CO2 estimated for biodiesel efforts versus the reduction 5 tons of CO2 per USD invested in JAHUS projects..... (http://thejahusblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/for-nerds-or-you-and-me.html)

• Look to the Netherlands where they are changing from taxing the cars to taxing the use of cars. They will be paying for kilometers driven per year regardless of the type of fuel used (except, I guess, for elcars - and I hope with higher taxlevels for SUVs than small cars).
• In Norway we're also talking about a special rush-hour tax during rush-hour in the big cities (to get people over on public transportation)